I recently came across an interesting chart over at ZeroHedge regarding changes in wealth distribution over the 20th century.  The top 0.1% of income earners' share of total income gradually decreased from the end of the Depression era until the early 80s, and then exploded back up to early-1900s levels.  A wealth transfer of such degree over two decades is notable.

zerohedge income dist chart.jpg

The shape of the graph got me thinking, what did the spikes in the latter period coincide with?  I realized that the spikes matched the run-up to our major bubble/bust periods: S&L bubble in the late 1980s, tech bubble of the late 90s, and residential real estate bubble of the mid 2000s.  Given my semi-obsession with the role of debt (thank you Steve Keen) in macroeconomic behavior, I wondered how the Total Debt/GDP changes lined up with the wealth distribution changes.

Using Piketty & Saez's 2009 data on wealth changes and the Federal Reserve's outstanding U.S. Dollar debt figures (data pulled from their 2009 releases), I created a rate of change comparison chart.  To eliminate some of the noise, I took a three-year Simple Moving Average of the delta-squareds.

debt and top earners -small.jpg

Alternatively, here's the same graph with nominal change in the Top 0.1% Earners' Share of Income.  Comparing second-derivative change on the Debt/GDP side with first-derivative change in 0.1% Earners' Share might be a bit funky, but it tells a better story and makes sense from the perspective of matching with the original graph... If I remembered my financial econometrics well enough I'd make a comment about data stationarity here...

debt and top earners nom -small.jpg

If anyone is interested in the source data please let me know and I will post my set.

My concluding question: how much of the change in wealth distribution from 1980-today was directly from the Financial Services sector profiting off leverage/credit expansion?

Kyle

Emmanuel Saez's dataset updated Aug 2009 available: http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~saez/
Federal Reserve data available at the usual place: http://www.federalreserve.gov
There is a company in Cleveland that local entrepreneurs have likely heard of called Goldstein Caldwell & Associates.  I got their newsletter today, reminding me that I wanted to post about them.  They describe themselves as "a seed capital investment and business development company that helps young entrepreneurs turn their ideas into viable businesses."  In other words, they are trying out the Y-Combinator / TechStars / Founder Institute approach focused on the Cleveland startup world.

Cleveland entrepreneurs undoubtedly need more help getting off the ground.  There are a few channels for early-stage support including JumpStart, Techlift, MAGNET, CIL, GLIDE, and various university programs, each of which I've had great experiences with.  Still, these groups can only do so much, since most first-time entrepreneurs really need direct and constant advice from entrepreneurs who have experience in their industry and have done it before.  A Y-Combinator branch or Founder Institute program in the city would help immensely.

On the other hand, GCA's service appears to cost the same as the big-time incubators but without the major benefits.  An entrepreneur should always ask themselves before handing out equity: "Is this person someone I will be glad I'm partners with in five years?"  Adeo Ressi, Paul Graham, David Cohen?  Absolutely.  GCA?  I'm not sure.  Let me be clear that I'm sure the individuals at GCA are highly capable businesspeople, which they've proven with their press coverage and footprint so far, but this does not mean they should be coaching first-time entrepreneurs.

Here are some problems I've been thinking about since first hearing about GCA this spring:

1.)  The partners have not succeeded as high-growth entrepreneurs.  Whereas in the current well-respected programs you work with entrepreneurs who have one or more multi-million dollar exits along with long careers of direct industry expereince, the GCA team has collectively founded one VC-track business, Zolio, which never raised more than a seed round and currently has about 1,000 monthly unique visitors.  I can't say that my track record is much better right now, but I'm also not running a startup advisory firm.  Actually, the main reason I'm writing this blog post is that I had been thinking about doing something like this a few months ago and realized that if I did, someone would write this article about me ;)

- How they could fix this: GCA needs entrepreneurs-in-residence on staff that work consistently with clients.  That would at least give some meat to the notion of value-added advisory for new entrepreneurs.

2.)  The partners have very little other experience relevant to startups.  Aside from Zolio, the management team has some work experience but not what I'd imagine is necessary to really provide something unique for their clients.  Todd has some business analysis background which definitely helps, but that's about it.  Dar's experience isn't very relevant (two years working as an independent architect; managing a P&L but for a one-man show).  Their engineering expert Jeff worked as an engineer for a small hardware company for a few years - OK but not an industry expert.  VP Finance Celia has worked in ibanking (looks like mostly family-owned companies, middle market manufacturing etc. as is common in NE Ohio), but as I've learned since my summer at Western Reserve Partners, finance in the ibanking sense has little relevance to startups, since you need operating history to do any sort of traditional financial analysis, and raising capital for an established business is an entirely different art than raising early-stage funding.

AGAIN, I am not ripping on the management here.  I'm only saying that they don't seem to be the right people for coaching a first-time entrepreneur.

3.)  The ambiguous economics of a GCA engagement could result in naive entrepreneurs getting taken advantage of.  Visit GCA's website and look for the nitty gritty details of what a relationship with them will cost you.  You won't find much.  Go look at the competition's sites I listed above and notice that all these groups very explicitly describe their program's economics: amount the firm invests, all associated costs, amount of the startup equity taken in return, etc.  They do this for good reason: there are a lot of snake-oil salesmen in the startup world due to the relative inexperience of startup entrepreneurs.  I've run into the type before: pushy and sleezy financial advisors trying to sell insurance products to Fresh Fork while we were clearly struggling financially, "angel funds" pushing personal lines of credit as the best way to fund CitizenGroove (extremely easy to do, charge 5% commission, walk away smiling), a Nevada-based "social network expert, investment banker, and venture capitalist" trying to provide consulting for a cut of equity (soon afterwards found a web community comprised of people he had scammed in the past), the list goes on....

I doubt GCA is in that camp.  I'm guessing the firm is well-intentioned, but they don't have the intuition and understanding that comes with a long history of serial entrepreneurship.  They may enter into agreements with startups which they think are fair, even though the agreements are way out of whack when compared with competing programs throughout the country, simply because of this lack of experience.

- How they could fix this: there's no reason not to have a standardized, publicly-available business model for something like this.  The details should be listed on their site.  Should be easy enough.

4.)  Although the details aren't publicly available, I gather that GCA is expensive even in comparison to industry-leading startup incubators.  This is hearsay (although we could verify if the details were listed on their site, see above), but I understand that GCA asks for  equity in the range of 5-10% for access to their consulting services and presumably free accounting/legal.  This does not include any invested capital.  This is *a lot* of your baby for some free business services, office space, and advice from people who, as mentioned, don't have any track record building high-growth companies.

Additionally, I'm not even sure the services offered are free of charge.  From their July 2009 FAQ:
GCA will typically gain ownership in the start-up business. The extent of ownership depends on the amount of seed investment, business services and support the client needs. GCA also charges a monthly service fee for basic start-up services, business and communications tools and office space.

For one comparison, look at YC's program.  You definitely receive some funding in the ballpark of $10-20k, help with all the legal work (although you pay for it in IOUs to the law firm) and services from people who have already made the mistakes that could sink your startup, and connections to dozens of angels and VCs (personal connections built over decades by the people who run the program, I might add).  Oh, and if you have questions about your business you can ask someone with 20+ years of industry experience and wildly successful projects such as Paul Graham.  How much does this cost you?  2-10% of your equity.  Granted they don't offer you office space, but other similarly-priced programs do (Polaris' Dog Patch, Techstars...)

5.)  Do the accounting and legal services actually help much?  Unless there is value-added guidance from someone who has been around the startup block a few times, I can't imagine being pointed towards service providers (who probably will be paying a referral fee?) is better than doing it on your own.  It's not too hard to network, get references, and find the right people to help with these things.  I'd recommend going to Gorilla Group meetings, 20/30 club meetings, and getting in touch with groups such as Civic Innovation Lab, Jumpstart, and Techlift to get suggestions.  Help finding these people should be icing on the cake, not the main reason you give up 5-10% of your company.

6.) Ultimately, we will not know if GCA is effective until a company raises institutional money.  GCA's youth means their lack of seed or Series A raises is to be expected.  I would personally let other people take the risk, though, and wait until at least one or two financings come through before I jumped on board.

Happy hunting to all.

Kyle
Today a friend and current CWRU student interviewed me for a Weatherhead graduate entrepreneurship class.  Most of the students in the class were interviewing larger companies, so the professor wanted to know specifically from my experience co-founding Fresh Fork Market what kind of mistakes I would caution students to avoid.

The big one I mentioned is worthy of sharing with the world, the biggest mistake during my time working on FFM that I'll never make again:

A startup should ALWAYS have the "brains" behind their core business IN HOUSE!  In the case of a software company like us, this means software developers.  During the process of creating a product or service, these technical people will be making mistakes, learning about the business processes, and in general building what you might call "institutional knowledge" specific to the company and industry.  

A startup's core competency cannot be "we are the best in our niche at being business people," it needs to be something like "we are the best at *creating* a product/service that caters to our niche," which requires in-house technical skill.  FFM was started by a bunch of people that at the time had never built a web application, thinking that we could outsource the actual technical work and use the resulting product, but this meant that we could not evaluate the outside firm's work, be confident in the status of the project, or in the event of an overall failure have learned from mistakes made during the project.A software company should have a software developer, a biotech company a bioengineer, a cleantech company a chemE and/or EE, etc., and those individuals need to be sold on the idea and be equity partners.

This may seem obvious to experienced entrepreneurs, or those on the west coast where "software developer turned entrepreneur" is the startup archetype.  But to a group of business students starting what ultimately became a software company in Cleveland, it was not so obvious.  Furthermore, while we had advisors, mentors, etc., this wasn't something that was stressed by anyone else.

So I'll stress it now.  YOU NEED A TECHNICAL CO-FOUNDER!  With equity, who loves the company.
Last night I attended the inaugural Juice Pitcher event, a startup showcase cohosted by TheFunded.com and Vator.tv on Microsoft's Mountain View, CA campus.  The event was a blast, full of founders with great energy and ideas.  Out of ten startups,  local service marketplace Thumbtack won the popular vote (I voted for them!  great concept and convincing presentation, definitely check it out!), although most of the companies that presented had fairly compelling value propositions.

The event's keynote speaker was Aaron Patzer, founder of personal finance website Mint.com, which was recently purchased by Intuit for $170mil.  Aaron's talk contained both very practical information for aspiring software entrepreneurs and a peek into the emotional, transformational effects of growing and selling a world-class business out of nothing.  It always feels good to have your own thoughts and viewpoints repeated by someone so accomplished.  I left feeling a little less crazy and a little more empowered.

Software entrepreneurs should take a look at Mint.com's performance numbers and growth history as a yardstick for developing their own businesses.  Check out all the details at the Vator.tv article on Aaron's talk.

Some of the info that the article left out: Mint originally projected to have revenues of about $30/user/year, and this estimate was pretty close to the actual results today.  Aaron insisted that startups should have a model which shows the basics in a single table/graphic: customer growth, COGS, revenue per sale or per user, and profit.  Mint was able to get legal work done with deferred payment in exchange for about 1/2% equity, through Palo Alto law firm WSGR

Thanks Adeo Ressi & Bambi Francisco for hosting the event and organizing a pretty awesome afterparty :)
A friend of mine recently got in touch with me about his new venture, Cleveland Recruiting Co., a talent group targeted specifically at Cleveland.  The city definitely needs something like this, so props to Pat and the rest of his team.

 from the email:


I would like to bring to your attention the exciting launch of The Cleveland Recruiting Company.  The Cleveland Recruiting Co. is focused on:

 

  • Talent Attraction and Retention
    • Connection and contact to the civic and young professional community
  • Job Recruitment
    • Current and potential job seekers stay informed on greater Cleveland entry and mid-level job opportunities via facebook
    • Companies get exposure to thousands of professional candidates who have an affinity to the Cleveland area

 

Our goal is to simply engage the next generation workforce (typically young professionals 40 and under) with career opportunities and exposure to our city.  We are doing this using facebook.com an online social networking site.  Both Clevelanders and ex-Clevelanders have already signed up to get updates on opportunities.  This also is used as a portal for those folks who have been gone from Cleveland for sometime that may be looking for the right opportunity to bring them back

 

We are currently populating our facebook.com page and are also reaching out to prospective corporate clients.

 

What we need:

  • Companies that would like to post entry and mid-level job opportunities and internships.  If we find you a candidate that fits your needs and you hire them, there is a nominal fee.  Internships are free!
  • Companies looking to showcase the city to their next generation workforce
  • Help spreading the word to people and have them log onto facebook.com and search The Cleveland Recruiting Company, and sign up, its easy!

 

PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT http://clevelandrecruitingco.com/

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