December 2008 Archives

A few weeks ago I linked an article Michael Lewis wrote about Steve Eisman, an investor who recognized the growing housing bubble early in the decade and beat the market as it disintegrated.  In the article, Lewis mentioned a man named Jim Grant of Grant Publishing who regularly comments on interest rates and the general market.  Mr. Grant wrote a stunning article for Saturday's (my birthday!) WSJ in which he rails against the fiat money system, the U.S. government's response to our financial crisis, and the chronic short-termism of U.S. politicians.


In commenting on attitudes towards inflationary policy in our country's history, Mr. Grant quotes Elihu Root, an early 1900s Republican senator from New York who opposed the initial creation of the Federal Reserve.

Mr. Root attacked the [Federal Reserve] bill in this fashion: "Little by little, business is enlarged with easy money. With the exhaustless reservoir of the Government of the United States furnishing easy money, the sales increase, the businesses enlarge, more new enterprises are started, the spirit of optimism pervades the community."
...
"That, sir," Mr. Root concluded, "is no dream. That is the history of every movement of inflation since the world's business began, and it is the history of many a period in our own country. That is what happened to greater or less degree before the panic of 1837, of 1857, of 1873, of 1893 and of 1907. The precise formula which the students of economic movements have evolved to describe the reason for the crash following the universal process is that when credit exceeds the legitimate demands of the country the currency becomes suspected and gold leaves the country."

Economics truly is the dismal science.  Over the past century, hard sciences have come so far in providing new innovations for humanity, yet the same argument over the economic theory of credit expansion exists today as it did in 1913 when the Fed was created.  Today the Fed and the Treasury fight fire after fire using the same tools that created our massive economy-wide bubble: credit.

Recall my post regarding Walker Todd's reflections on Fed policy.  Mr. Grant brings up the same point:

Since Labor Day, the Fed's assets have zoomed to $2.31 trillion from $905.7 billion.

He goes on to echo my oft-repeated objection to blaming the free markets and nebulous "greed" for the housing crisis:

The public has been slow to anger in this costliest and scariest of post World War II financial crises. Wall Street and the debt ratings agencies have come in for well-deserved castigation. But pointing fingers rarely find the Federal Reserve, whose low, low interest rates helped to set house prices levitating in the first place.

Reflecting on the ability of the U.S. to continue funding deficits by issuing treasuries to foreign central banks, Grant points out the Fed's announced policy of debasing the dollar to save our massively leveraged economy:

If the Fed is going to create boatloads of depreciating, non-yielding dollar bills, who will absorb them? Who will finance the Obama administration's looming titanic fiscal deficits? Who will finance America's annual surplus of consumption over production (after 25 more or less continuous years, almost a national trait)? Inflation is a kind of governmentally sanctioned white-collar crime. Every crime needs a dupe. Now that the Fed has announced its plan to deceive, where will it find its victims?

Read the article and see what you think.
I'm a bit behind in posting this, but the discussion is becoming more and more relevant every day.  Case Professor Emeritus Bill Peirce directed me to a talk by two former Cleveland Fed officials hosted by the CSU law school.  Walker Todd is a Research Fellow at the American Institute for Economic Research and formerly an officer of both the Cleveland and New York Fed branches.  Ray Kalich is a former VP of Financial Management Services at the Cleveland Fed.

The outspoken Walker Todd has strong opinions on the right and wrong policies enacted by the Fed throughout its history, an attitude that Todd described with a laugh: "you have to have retired form the system to talk, so that they can't do anything to you."  In his November 19th talk, Todd painted a picture of the "Road to Weimar" that he believes the Fed is walking down with every additional expansion of its balance sheet.  The Weimar Republic of 1923 is a textbook case of hyperinflation destroying a currency, leading to the floundering of the German economy, mounting desperation of the German public, and ultimately its susceptibility to the radicalism and war brought on by the Nazis before WWII.  At the height of hyperinflation, the Deutsche Mark suffered a 4,200,000,000:1 conversion rate to US Dollars.

The Fed's reaction to our economic crisis has been rapid, varied, and massive.  On Labor Day this year, the Fed's balance sheet reflected $900 billion in assets, ballooning to $2,200 billion by the day of Todd's talk.  (I'll keep putting figures in terms of billions, because it seems a bit more real than talking in trillions...)  Todd expects to see $3,000 billion in assets by the end of this year.  While any beginning economics student knows that inflation of the money supply does not flow straight through to prices on a 1:1 ratio, nor immediately, a 1:1 flow through of this monetary expansion would yield 62% per month inflation -- that is, around 744% inflation for the year.

When these numbers are pointed out to current Fed officials and economists, they brush off all worry by saying that the Fed can withdraw these funds from the system as soon as the threat of inflation appears.  I experienced this first hand at an economic talk hosted by the CCWA several days later during which I asked Cleveland Fed economist Owen Humpage about the implications of massive monetary expansion.  Humpage nonchalantly replied to my question by stating that the Fed could very easily reverse any expansion of the quantity of money available, averting disaster.

There is something wrong with this statement.  For many decades, the Fed relied on so-called "open market operations" to adjust the quantity of money available in the system.  This tool allows for an unbiased increase or decrease of the money supply via the sale or purchase of U.S. Treasury securities.  When inflation becomes threatening, the Fed sells Treasuries, removing money from the system.  This strategy has changed dramatically this year as a result of the crisis in our financial system.  Several new tools have been created that are not nearly as flexible as the traditional open market operations of the Fed.

From Labor Day to November 19th, the change to the Fed's balance sheet has been as follows:)
- Usual open market operations: +$60 billion (Labor Day: $20 billion)
- Primary credit discount window: +$120 billion (Labor Day: $300 MILLION)
- Primary dealer credit*: +$120 billion
- Asset-backed Commercial Paper purchases*: +$130 billion
- AIG and other loans*: $+84 billion
- Non-asset backed Commercial Paper purchases* +$250 billion
- Foreign Exchange swaps for foreign central banks*: +$571 billion

All the programs marked with an asterisk are completely new programs.  "So what?" you may ask.  Look at the titles of these programs and think back to the confidence of Fed officials like Ben Bernanke, or even Cleveland's own Owen Humpage, in being able to remove funds from the system.  Given a post-deflation threat of high inflation, how would the Fed be able to take back funds from these new programs?  It would have to demand immediate return of $84 billion from companies such as AIG that it has loaned money to.  Let that sink in for a second.  How could any company, let alone a miserable failure of a company such as AIG, return such an enormous sum of money at the drop of a hat?  Furthermore, the Fed would need to sell its Commercial Paper on the open markets -- keep in mind these are securities that they purchased because NO ONE ELSE WANTS THEM!  Finally, Todd pointed out that the $571 billion in ForEx swaps were made so that foreign banks could load up on the dollars which they use for reserves, a questionable new tactic with potential unintended consequences.

This expansion does not include any of the additional load the U.S. Government has taken on through the Treasury or FDIC in recent months.

Todd tells us that the tightening required to fight off hyperinflation will be either extremely painful or impossible.  When we hit the bottom of the economic correction, all the infused liquidity will come surging back.  In Todd's words, "if you think we're in a recession now, you ain't seen nothin' yet."  He says to look forward to 100% interest rates, due to these problems as well as the fact that "it's hard for the mouse to put the bell on the lion ... China is now what we were in the 40s."

There is hope, says Todd, but it will come in the form of gold, and only Iran and Malaysia have even considered the possibility of a new gold standard.

In response to the freezing of lending that has occurred due to highly uncertain counterparty risk, Todd advocates a nation-wide bank holiday.  During this time, the Fed could examine all banks simultaneously so as to not cause a crisis of depositor confidence.  When the holiday ended, the banks deemed unfit by the Fed would simply not reopen, and all banks would have confidence that counterparties were not in danger of collapse as a result of financial crisis-related exposure.  The last bank holiday in Ohio occurred on March 8-15, 1985; 1933 marked the last national bank holiday.

Todd finished the talk with a final fact to consider.  With the government sector making up 35% of our GDP, we are left with a much smaller and less flexible private sector to fight off big problems in the future. 

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